Election Update #2

The two primaries are unfolding as we predicted on October 16.

The Democrat Primary is over. Hillary Clinton will be the nominee.

In the Republican Primary, only four candidates are truly competitive:

The Establishment candidate will be Marco Rubio. His numbers will rise. Other Establishment candidates will drop out. Not necessarily in that order.

Donald Trump has the solid support of 20-30% of GOP primary voters who see him as the only candidate truly willing to deport illegals and end our bi-partisan open borders policy. If enough candidates stay in the race, that’s enough to win a lot of convention delegates.

Each presidential election cycle, the evangelicals rally around the candidate they perceive as the most genuinely Christian. Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee have received that devotion in the past. Often times, the chosen candidate can win the Iowa Caucuses, but their support usually drops afterwards. Dr. Ben Carson is the candidate of the evangelicals this time around.

Ted Cruz continues to improve on the campaign trail and impress in the debates. He is too conservative for the Establishment but is building support from voters who either find Rubio too slick or Trump to coarse. His bold statements on immigration in the recent FBN debate may signal a move to Trump’s position on that issue. If he embraces both legal and illegal immigration reductions, he will begin to pull Trump’s support and rise in the polls.

The Establishment/Chamber GOP has a real problem: Bush, Christie and Kasich are a drag on Rubio’s ability to place in the top two in New Hampshire [Feb. 9]. All four of them are fighting for the same voters. Chris Christie has an outside chance of catching fire in New Hampshire. He is the only Establishment candidate who could defeat Rubio there [Chances: 30%].

That would continue the Establishment infighting because Rubio is sure to win in Florida [March 15]. The longer the Establishment fights, the better for Trump. Can the big donors convince the others to drop out? Jeb’s large bank account, and Christie’s polling numbers in NH would seem to suggest no.

At this point the possibility of a convention fight is real [Chances: 25%].

 

2016-02-10T16:36:35+00:00November 12th, 2015|The Daily Stir|4 Comments